Welcome to yet another SPORTPESA MEGAJACKPOT, POST-MATCH ANALYSIS – THE BREAKDOWN 2021. We managed to get 7/17 correct predictions which were poor by our standards. There were close calls and red cards that threw some of the games off not to mention a mind boggling total of 8 draws with 7 of them coming in the last 8 matches: but as always, we like to take on any loss as a challenge to do better. With that in mind, below is the breakdown of the results as well as an in-depth look at our research methodology in the hopes that with each loss we all gain a lesson that could potentially set us on our way back to the Sportpesa Mega jackpot Bonus once again in the coming week.
Bournemouth vs Leicester
Our 1st Pick: 1
Result: 4-2
Bournemouth manager Eddie Howe says his side are far from the finished article despite going fifth in the Premier League with a 4-2 win over Leicester. The hosts were well in control by half-time, with Joshua King adding a penalty to two goals from Ryan Fraser. Adam Smith then made it 4-0 before James Maddison and Marc Albrighton replied late on for the Foxes, who had Wes Morgan sent off in the second half.
Bournemouth had mostly looked comfortable until Leicester’s belated resurgence, although Asmir Begovic produced a brilliant double save to deny Jamie Vardy and James Maddison while the score was only 1-0.
But the late goals flattered Claude Puel’s side, who slip back to ninth after a second consecutive defeat. Fraser’s first goal was a curling shot round Kasper Schmeichel’s left hand from outside the box, and his second a poke through the Leicester keeper’s legs.
Ricardo Pereira’s handball gave King the chance to extend the lead from the spot, and Fraser was involved again when his pull-back set up Smith to score on his 100th Premier League appearance.
Huddersfield vs Crystal Palace
Our 1st Pick: 2
Result: 0-1
Wilfried Zaha produced a moment of brilliance on his return to the team as Crystal Palace earned their second win of the season against Huddersfield.
Halfway through September is far too early to be labeling matches six-pointers, but this was an encounter with a fiery edge to it from the start.
It looked as though it might be a frustrating afternoon for Zaha, who missed Palace’s defeat to Southampton before the international break with a groin injury after he was booked for a late tackle on Florent Hadergjonaj.
That foul was a reaction to being hauled to the ground by Mathias Jorgensen, but Zaha regained his composure and in the 38th minute knocked the ball between two defenders before smashing past Jonas Lossl.
The hosts offered a threat in the second half, flooding the Palace box with high crosses, and Aaron Mooy came close to finding the equalizer only to see his well-struck volley clatter off a post.
Huddersfield’s wait for their first win of the season continues but Palace moves up to 11th in the table.
Bristol City vs Sheffield Utd
Our 1st Pick: 1
Result: 1-0
Bristol City extended their winning run to four Championship games with a victory over Sheffield United thanks to Marley Watkins’ late-headed goal.
The 27-year-old attacker, a summer signing from Norwich, guided in Callum O’Dowda’s cross with a deft flick to register his second goal in as many games.
The Blades bossed possession throughout and saw David McGoldrick miss a host of first-half opportunities. But the home team improved after half-time and should have already been ahead before the late winner.
City head coach Lee Johnson had made the bold decision to switch his formation to 3-5-2 to match up against the visitors, who had won on their last three visits to Ashton Gate. Robin’s keeper Niki Maenpaa produced a smart save to keep out John Lundstram’s piledriver early in the second half.
Johnson then abandoned his change of shape on the hour, altering the course of the game. Famara Diedhiou – making his first start of the season after serving a six-match ban for spitting – passed up a great chance to break the deadlock, firing horribly wide after being sent clear by Marlon Pack’s pass.
Pack then called for a penalty when his goal-bound attempt seemed to strike an arm in the box, but City was celebrating Watkins’ winning goal just 60 seconds later. The fourth straight win takes City up to third in the early Championship table, while United drops to fifth.
Bolton vs QPR
Our 1st Pick: 2
Result: 1-2
Queens Park Rangers won on the road for the first time in nine games to condemn Bolton to defeat in the week they avoided administration.
Forward Luke Freeman scored the opener and then created another for Steve McClaren’s side at the University of Bolton stadium, where the hosts this week agreed on a rescue deal to pay off their main creditor. Freeman slammed the ball home after a brilliant pull-back by Nahki Wells in the first half, then crossed for Eberechi Eze to score from 12 yards after the break.
Trotters substitute Josh Magennis pulled one back with a 20-yard free-kick, but it was not enough for Phil Parkinson’s spirited side who dominated the closing stages.
It meant the Londoners have taken seven points from the last nine available and extended their unbeaten run to four games across all competitions.
Norwich vs Middlesbrough
Our 1st Pick: 2
Result: 1-0
Middlesbrough suffered their first Championship defeat of the season and conceded their first league goal since the opening day as Norwich prevailed at Carrow Road.
The hosts had the better of a low-key first half but Boro had the best chance as Jonny Howson’s turn and shot was well stopped by Canaries keeper Tim Krul.
Norwich took a deserved lead when Emi Buendia teed up Finland striker Teemu Pukki to poke in his fourth goal in five home games for the club.
Boro boss Tony Pulis brought on George Saville for his debut but the visitors were unable to find a way past Dutchman Krul, who saved superbly from fellow sub-Martin Brathwaite.
The victory gave Daniel Farke’s Norwich just their second league triumph of the season, while Middlesbrough fell from second to fourth in the table after this maiden loss.
The Canaries were without captain Grant Hanley through injury but shut out their opponents and ended their run of five league clean sheets in a row, becoming the first team to score a second-half goal against Boro this term.
Summer signing Pukki continued his scoring streak, having netted winners in both of Finland’s Nations League games over the international break.
Norwich – who have now alternated between a win and a defeat in their last nine home Championship games – have won their last four matches against Middlesbrough in all competitions without conceding.
Bradford City vs Charlton
Our 1st Pick: X
Result: 0-2
Charlton spoiled new head coach David Hopkin’s first home match in charge of Bradford with an impressive victory at Valley Parade.
To complete a miserable afternoon for the Bradford boss, both he and one of his assistants, Greg Abbott, were booked by referee Jeremy Simpson during a frantic second half as the Bantams tried in vain to force an equalizer. It was Bradford’s fourth defeat in a row – a result that sees them slip into the relegation zone.
Charlton went ahead in the third minute when the home defence failed to cut out Lewis Page’s long ball into the inside channel for striker Karlan Ahearne-Grant to latch on to before slotting home a cool finish.
Bradford dominated the start of the second half and had a claim for a penalty when defender Jason Pearce appeared to pull back Ryan McGowan, but the referee turned down their appeals – a decision that led to Hopkin being booked for protesting.
However, Charlton put the result beyond doubt when Lyle Taylor doubled their advantage with a superb angled effort into the far corner.
Peterborough vs Portsmouth
Our 1st Pick: 1
Result: 1-2
Portsmouth moved above opponents Peterborough to the top of League One after their victory at London Road.
Ronan Curtis, on his return from international duty with the Republic of Ireland, set up both of Pompey’s second-half goals. Oliver Hawkins and Jamal Lowe put the visitors in charge of the top-of-the-table clash before Ivan Toney teed up Matt Godden four minutes into stoppage time for consolation.
The opener arrived when winger Curtis battled past Joe Ward down the left and crossed for Hawkins to loop a header into the far corner for his first goal of the season.
The second goal arrived 13 minutes later and followed a poor pass from home center-back Rhys Bennett which found Curtis. A quick break saw Hawkins clip over a cross from the right which was headed by Curtis to Lowe, who fired in. Godden’s late strike could not prevent Posh’s first league defeat of the season, in front of a bumper crowd.
Shrewsbury vs Southend
Our 1st Pick: 1
Result: 2-0
Shrewsbury recorded their first League One win of the season as Greg Docherty and Lee Angol netted against Southend. We had backed the home team to win based on h2h records and it proved accurate.
Shrewsbury’s bright start was rewarded with a fifth-minute breakthrough as Docherty, on loan from Rangers, was picked out by Alex Gilliead’s cross from the left and fired a powerful shot high into the net.
Shaun Whalley and Angol then went close for the home side before Southend almost forced an equalizer. Timothee Dieng’s header was well saved by goalkeeper Joel Coleman before he impressed again to stop a close-range effort from Simon Cox.
Shrewsbury doubled their lead on the stroke of half-time as the visitors were unable to clear Whalley’s corner and striker Angol drilled home a low shot from close range.
Shrewsbury might have had a third early in the second half but visiting goalkeeper David Stockdale did well to keep out Angol’s header with his feet. Southend enjoyed plenty of possession but found chances hard to come by.
Walsall vs Doncaster
Our 1st Pick: 1
Result: 1-4
Doncaster came from behind to claim a thumping win at Walsall as the hosts’ unbeaten League One start to the season bit the dust.
Walsall threatened early as Luke Leahy’s defense-splitting pass freed Josh Ginnelly but he curled inches wide from 18 yards.
Ex-Saddlers skipper Andy Butler gifted his old team the opener as his mistimed header from a Ginnelly cross set up Morgan Ferrier to nod home from close range. But Doncaster leveled on the half-hour as Leahy handled a high ball and John Marquis tucked home his fourth league goal of the season from the resultant penalty kick.
Doncaster keeper Marko Marosi impressively foiled Ferrier’s six-yard strike after the break before Rovers went in front as Leeds loanee Mallik Wilks drilled past Liam Roberts at his near post. Wilks’ surging run set up James Coppinger to curl home a fine third before Matty Blair sealed the rout in stoppage time.
Our 1st Pick: 1
Result: 2-2
Sheffield Wednesday came from behind as Barry Bannan’s second half-free kick rescued a point for the Owls against Stoke.
Gary Rowett’s visitors had taken an impressive first-half lead thanks to a Benik Afobe double at Hillsborough, but the spirited hosts struck back through Portuguese striker Marco Matias.
Afobe, who took his tally to four for the season, had another goal ruled out for off-side and went close again before Scotland international Bannan clipped in the equalizer off the post. It moved Wednesday up to ninth and meant Potters boss Gary Rowett has still won just once in his last 14 away matches in all competitions.
Millwall vs Leeds
Our 1st Pick: 2
Result: 1-1
Jack Harrison’s late goal earned Leeds a deserved point at Millwall and extended the Championship leaders’ unbeaten league start.
Leeds came closest to scoring in a nervy first half, Ezgjan Alioski heading narrowly wide and Ben Amos saving well to deny Tyler Roberts. Millwall took the lead when Jed Wallace fired in off the post after the visitors failed to clear a long throw.
Amos reacted brilliantly to keep out Luke Ayling’s close-range strike, but he could do nothing to stop Harrison’s effort from the edge of the box. Tom Elliott almost won it for the Lions in added time, his header against the inside of the post deflecting safely away from the Leeds goal.
Millwall also had appeals for a penalty turned down by the referee as Elliott went down in the box, but neither side could complain of the final result. Leeds had slightly the better of the first-half chances but lacked a cutting edge without injured strikers Patrick Bamford and Kemar Roofe.
Wallace’s clinical finish looked to have earned his side a ninth win in 10 home games against Leeds, only for Harrison to respond with his side’s first Championship goal at the Den since 2012.
Swansea vs Nottingham
Our 1st Pick: 1
Result: 0-0
Swansea City sneaked back into the Championship play-off berths despite being held by Nottingham Forest in a stalemate at Liberty Stadium.
In a contest high in intensity but at times lacking in quality, especially in the final third, both sides missed chances to claim all three points. Ben Osborn twice went close for the visitors, while substitute Joel Asoro missed Swansea’s best opportunity.
Swans rose to sixth in the table, while Forest slipped to 15th. Late drama is normally guaranteed between Forest and the Swans, with four of their previous five encounters producing a goal in the 90th minute or later, but this match never really looked like delivering.
The hosts perhaps had the better of a quiet opening 45 minutes, though Forest found a regular outlet for attacks down the right flank as Yan Dhanda failed to provide adequate defensive cover for Declan John, making his first league start. That allowed Matty Cash plenty of freedom, with Forest threatening early after slack marking from Jay Fulton allowed Osborn to fire a shot that Erwin Mulder saved.
Osborn came close again on the stroke of halftime with another firm drive after Dhanda’s mistake, but the ex-Liverpool man also forced Constel Pantillimon to save at the other end. Chances were few and far between, but Swansea’s most likely avenue to a goal appeared to be the understanding between Oli McBurnie and summer signing Bersant Celina.
The duo twice fashioned opportunities, but on both occasions slightly over-hit their passes, allowing Pantillimon to clear the danger. Injuries to Celina and Fulton meant a Swan’s tactical reshuffle at the interval, but the contest continued to be tense and tight with chances at a premium.
Osborne again had an opportunity on the hour mark, but blazed wide, before Swansea substitute Asoro forced himself too wide from close range, allowing Pantillimon to smother.
Lewis Grabban was denied late on at the other end by some last-ditch Swansea defending before Dias forced Edwin Mulder to save, but a stalemate was probably a fair reflection on the contest.
Blackburn vs Aston Villa
Our 1st Pick: 2
Result: 1-1
Conor Hourihane’s sublime stoppage-time free-kick earned Aston Villa a deserved draw against Blackburn. Bradley Dack’s well-executed flick from Danny Graham’s miscued shot looked to have set Blackburn on the way to victory before substitute Hourihane curled in left-footed from 25 yards.
Despite saving themselves to grab a late point, Villa has now gone five Championship matches without a win. Both sides have taken 10 points from their first seven Championship games, with Blackburn – promoted from League One last season – now certain to go a full calendar year without losing a league match at home.
It had earlier appeared that Rovers and Villa would both be left aggrieved with officials’ decisions during a goalless first half. Dack had a header ruled out for offside when he appeared to be level with Villa’s last defender Alan Hutton, while the visitors broke forward almost immediately and saw claims for a penalty rejected.
Scotland midfielder John McGinn was tripped by Richie Smallwood in the box, but referee Steve Martin thought otherwise and waved away Villa’s fierce protests.
England international Tammy Abraham played the full 90 minutes on his debut for the visitors following his loan deadline day move from Chelsea.
He forced Rovers goalkeeper David Raya to keep out a first-half header, nodded off target at the near post after half-time and then shot wide from 18 yards after a neat interchange with substitute Jonathan Kodjia.
Toulouse vs Monaco
Our 1st Pick: 1
Result: 1-1
An Aaron Leya Iseka right-footed shot from the center of the box to the bottom left corner canceled out Youri Tieleman’s early opener to ensure that spoils were shared in this French Ligue 1 encounter.
The two teams have met a total of 34 times in the past, Toulouse FC having won 6 times. Monaco 15 times and drawn 3 times. However, the hosts came into this one in fine form having not dropped a point at home so far.
Based on Monaco’s lacklustre season so far we backed the home team to carry the day but it wasn’t to be as spoils were shared.
Leganes vs Villarreal
Our 1st Pick: 1
Result: 0-1
Leganes was winless in the last 5 matches, prior to which they had gone on a four-match winning streak that was halted by Sevilla. However, Legane’s home form was encouraging having only lost to Barcelona in their last 5 matches conceding just 3 goals in the process.
Villareal on the other hand had lost 1 game under new coach Javi Calleja. Leganes is a tough side to break down at home, and it was all set to be a thrilling clash. The previous meeting drew blanks while the other two meetings were of less importance.
The inform Carlos Bacca proved to be the difference as his 65th-minute goal proved to be the winning one, setting the yellow submarines up for a crucial 3 points on the road.
We had backed the home side to win but it proved inaccurate.
Udinese vs Torino
Our 1st Pick: X
Result: 1-1
The two teams had met a total of 28 times in the past coming into this tantalizing Serie A Match. Udinese have won 11 times, Torino 10 times and drawn 7 times. With these stats, we backed a stalemate as the most probable outcome and it proved to be an accurate prediction as both teams settled for a share of the spoils.
We had gone for a draw as our pick based on head-to-head records as well as current form regarding both teams and it proved an accurate prediction.
Freiburg vs Stuttgart
Our 1st Pick: X
Result: 3-3
Freiburg was one of four Bundesliga teams, along with Bayer Leverkusen, Schalke 04, and visitors Stuttgart, without a point to show from their first two matches of the 2018/19 campaign. The South Germans have had a tough start to the season though, with fixtures at home to DFB Pokal holders Eintracht Frankfurt on an opening day (2-0 defeat) and a trip to 3rd placed Hoffenheim a week later, something that wasn’t helped by the absence of manager Christian Streich, who hasn’t been able to coach from the sidelines due to back problems. He did however return in time for the visit of Stuttgart on Sunday.
Stuttgart can do Freiburg one better, not only being the only Bundesliga club without a competitive win in the new 2018/19 campaign (they lost to Hansa Rostock in the DFB Pokal first round as well as both of their opening two Bundesliga fixtures) but also claimed the award of being the only team yet to find the back of the net this season.
Looking over everything, the value looked to be in the hosts but we went for stalemate as our pick and it proved to be accurate as the two teams played out a thrilling 3-3 by the end of the game.
That’s it for another pulsating week of our sportpesa megajackpot post-match breakdown. There were some surprising results but with each failure, one can only hope to learn. Here’s a tip for all our sports betting enthusiasts, sometimes stats may favor a particular team but dig deeper and trust by your gut. Sometimes your winning slip could be hinged on you backing the underdog and going against the norm. As they say, fortune favors the bold. Be on the lookout for our Sportpesa Megajackpot Predictions this week.
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