Welcome to yet another Sportpesa Megajackpot Post-Match Analysis. We managed to get 9/17 correct predictions which were poor by our standards. There were close calls and red cards that threw some of the games off not to mention a mind boggling total of 6 draws with 3 of them coming in the last 4 matches: but as always, we like to take on any loss as a challenge to do better. With that in mind, below is the breakdown of the results as well as an in depth look of our research methodology in the hopes that with each loss we all gain a lesson that could potentially set us on our way back to the Sportpesa Megajackpot Bonus once again in the coming week.
Reading vs Millwall
Our 1st Pick: 1
Yakou Meite netted a brace for Reading as they eased the pressure on manager Paul Clement by beating fellow Championship strugglers Millwall. Meite headed Reading into the lead as he glanced in Tyler Blackett’s near-post cross but Murray Wallace levelled for Millwall within six minutes.
Clement’s side regained the lead on the stroke of half-time after Blackett was fouled by Mahlon Romeo in the penalty area. Sam Baldock converted from the spot, as Romeo was booked, and the Royals made the points safe when Meite headed in a Leandro Bacuna corner late on.
Reading’s first Championship victory in four games came courtesy of a gritty display and some notable saves from returning goalkeeper Anssi Jaakkola. The Finn was recalled between the sticks for the first time since March after injuries to Vito Mannone and Sam Walker.
Twice he denied Millwall an opener in the first 15 minutes with a one-on-one save from Lee Gregory before clawing a Jake Cooper header off his line. Before Meite broke the deadlock, Liam Kelly struck a post for Reading in the first half, while Tom Elliott headed an effort against the crossbar as Millwall searched for a leveller after the break. Jaakkola again proved solid when he blocked a close-range Shane Ferguson volley from Jed Wallace’s cross as Reading clinched an important victory.
We had gone for a home win based on head to head records as well as current form and it proved an accurate prediction.
Wigan vs West Brom
Our 1st Pick: 2
Josh Windass ended West Bromwich Albion’s seven-game unbeaten run to lift Wigan Athletic up to seventh in the Championship. Summer signing Windass got the only goal 16 minutes from time. Latching onto Nick Powell’s knockdown from Latics goalkeeper Christian Walton’s long clearance, he accelerated, then veered to his right past the last defender to drill low right-footed past Sam Johnstone.
Albion would have regained top spot with a point or better but failed to score in the league for only the second time this season.
Only a string of fine saves from Johnstone prevented Wigan winning by more and Albion ended with 10 men as Jake Livermore was sent off for a second yellow card late on. After a free-scoring few weeks, this defeat would have acted as a timely reminder to Albion that promotion back to the Premier League will not be straightforward.
Paul Cook’s Wigan proudly protected their own undefeated sequence – they have not lost in the league at the DW Stadium since February – and were unfortunate not to win by more. Despite hamstring injuries keeping out Latics attackers Will Grigg and Michael Jacobs, they created several chances and limited Albion – by far the Championship’s top scorers – to just one shot on target.
Albion’s front duo of Dwight Gayle (eight) and Jay Rodriguez (seven) had scored more than Wigan’s team (14) combined this season – but Windass levelled that statistic. The Latics dominated a feisty game that featured nine bookings, including Livermore’s pair of yellows, and Windass was denied three times by Johnstone before opening the scoring.
Johnstone also twice denied Gary Roberts, while Albion’s best chance of rescuing a point saw Ahmed Hegazi’s header hit the side netting late on.
We had gone for an away win based on their long unbeaten streak but it came to a crashing end over the weekend.
Nottingham vs Norwich
Our 1st Pick: 1
Timm Klose’s second-half double lifted Norwich City into the Championship play-off places at the expense of Nottingham Forest with a 2-1 win at the City Ground.
City, who inflicted Forest’s first home defeat since they lost to Brentford in April, had to come from behind to secure the points. Lewis Grabban crashed home a Joao Carvalho chipped pass to put Forest in front on five minutes. Despite the best efforts of Onel Hernandez, who hit a post, and Marco Stiepermann, who missed with the goal gaping, that was how it stayed until the second half.
On the hour, Klose headed in a Moritz Leitner free-kick to level and, with time ticking down, the Switzerland international then nudged a rebound from Jordan Rhodes’ shot past Costel Pantilimon for his third goal in as many games.
This was Forest’s first defeat in all competitions since their 2-1 away loss at Brentford on 1 September, and was the result of Aitor Karanka’s side failing to build on their early momentum as the Canaries forced their way back into the game.
They drop to eighth, two points behind Blackburn in sixth. In-form Forest forward Joe Lolley, who had three goals in his past four games, struck the crossbar soon after Grabban’s early goal, but the shift in possession and chances was noticeable after the break. City striker Rhodes imposed his presence on the game, keeping Pantilimon busy, and Klose’s timely brace ensured a return to winning ways and a first defeat against the Canaries for Reds boss Karanka.
We had based our pick on home ground advantage but Norwich made a stunning comeback to secure a memorable away victory.
Shrewsbury vs Sunderland
Our 1st Pick: 2
Sunderland scored twice in the second half to run out comfortable winners at Shrewsbury.
An own goal from Omar Beckles gave the visitors the lead before sub Luke O’Nien added a late second.
Shrewsbury created two early chances as Beckles nodded Alex Gilliead’s cross over the bar before a Luke Waterfall header from Shaun Whalley’s corner was saved by Sunderland goalkeeper Jon McLaughlin.
Visiting skipper Lee Cattermole volleyed Jerome Sinclair’s cross over the bar before Whalley’s curling free kick at the other end bounced up against the bar.
Sunderland made the breakthrough in the 58th minute as left-back Beckles turned a cross from Lynden Gooch into his own net.
Chris Maguire’s well-struck shot was kept out by home goalkeeper Joel Coleman shortly afterwards.
Beckles and sub Aaron Amadi-Holloway were both off target with headers as Shrewsbury chased an equaliser before O’Nien, having just been sent on by Black Cats manager Jack Ross, fired in a low shot to double Sunderland’s advantage six minutes from time.
We backed the black cats to carry the day and it proved an accurate prediction.
Cardiff vs Fulham
Our 1st Pick: 1
Fulham boss Slavisa Jokanovic said his side have “so many defensive problems to fix” after they slipped into the Premier League relegation zone with defeat at Cardiff. Andre Schurrle’s spectacular 30-yard strike put the visitors ahead against the run of play, but within 10 minutes they trailed against a resurgent Bluebirds side inspired by a fervent home crowd.
Josh Murphy equalised with a precise low finish, and then Bobby Reid seized on frenetic Fulham defending to slot in his first goal for the club – only for Ryan Sessegnon to make it 2-2 before the break. Fulham seemed to grow in confidence from that point, but Cardiff responded again, with Callum Paterson shooting on the turn to squeeze the ball into the bottom corner to make it 3-2.
Then, as the visitors went in search of a late equaliser, a slip from Tim Ream allowed Victor Camarasa to square the ball to Cardiff substitute Kadeem Harris, whose close-range finish prompted delirious celebrations among the home fans.
Cardiff’s first league win of the season lifted them off the bottom of the table and out of the relegation zone, while Fulham have now conceded 12 goals in their past three games.
Based on Fulham’s abysmal defensive record, we backed the home side to carry the day and they did run rampant against their London-based opponents.
Newcastle vs Brighton
Our 1st Pick: 1
Rafael Benitez said turning around Newcastle’s fortunes will be the toughest challenge of his career after slipping to the bottom of the Premier League following defeat by Brighton.
The Magpies remain winless after a fifth straight home loss thanks to Brighton’s Beram Kayal, who deflected in Jose Izquierdo’s strike in the 29th minute.
The Seagulls lost leading scorer Glenn Murray, who was taken off after a sickening aerial collision in the ninth minute. Brighton boss Chris Hughton later stated that the forward had been concussed but would leave hospital after having precautionary fans. But it did not put the visitors off their stride in a match where they spent most of the time defending.
Benitez said the Magpies needed to be “more precise and clinical” after producing 27 shots on goal, with only six on target. Midfielder Jonjo Shelvey went closest to scoring – first with a strike that was superbly blocked by Mat Ryan, then with a free-kick saved by the Australian with the help from his wall.
And despite saying he was confident he could turn things around, when asked if the current situation is the toughest he has faced, the Spaniard said: “Yes, at the moment, yes.” I have had a lot of situations, but at the moment, obviously it’s a difficult task.”
The result means Newcastle are the fourth team in top-flight history to lose their first five home games of a season – the other three teams were relegated.
We had backed the home side to get their 1st win of the season based on their 1st half performance against the red devils but they were once again poor and deserved no points.
Hull City vs Preston
Our 1st Pick: 1
Hull City missed a chance to move out of the Championship relegation zone as fellow strugglers Preston North End grabbed a late equaliser. The Tigers hit the woodwork three times through Kamil Grosicki, Chris Martin and Jarrod Bowen and saw Preston goalkeeper Chris Maxwell pull off a string of saves.
Bowen then put the Tigers ahead from the penalty spot five minutes from time after Lilywhites centre-back Jordan Storey had brought down Martin. But Preston hit back in the third minute of stoppage time when Louis Moult brought the ball down, turned and fired in to extend the visitors’ unbeaten run to three games.
Hull had failed to score in three of their past four games heading into the match and looked like they would draw another blank until Bowen broke the deadlock from 12 yards. After Alan Brown and Lukas Nmecha spurned early chances for North End, Poland international Grosicki’s fierce strike came back off the upright and Martin hit the bar with a header.
Maxwell denied Bowen from Grosicki’s cutback after the break and the influential Pole had two more attempts saved before Maxwell deflected another Bowen effort onto the post. The forward’s fourth goal of the campaign seemed set to give Nigel Adkins’ side a first win in six games but substitute Moult struck to share the spoils.
Alex Neil’s Preston move out of the bottom three on goal difference after Millwall lost at Reading, while Hull climb off the bottom having won more games than Ipswich Town, who return to the foot of the table.
Wycombe vs Scunthorpe
Our 1st Pick: 1
Craig Mackail-Smith completed a remarkable Wycombe comeback by scoring an injury-time winner as the ten-man Chairboys recovered from two goals down to beat Scunthorpe.
Mackail-Smith punished a mistake from defender Rory McArdle, racing clear before finishing expertly past Jak Alnwick. It looked like Wycombe would settle for a valiant point after Fred Onyedinma curled home from 20 yards on 53 minutes to make it 2-2 after good hold-up play by Adebayo Akinfenwa.
Scunthorpe had started the game in lightning fashion with two goals in the opening seven minutes as they threatened to run riot. Ryan Colclough scored after just 18 seconds, cutting in from the left and firing past a stranded Ryan Allsop.
Stephen Humphrys made it 2-0 in double-quick time, clinically slotting past the Wycombe keeper. However, Dominic Gape gave Wycombe hope with a brilliant finish on 26 minutes to reduce their arrears. Allsop was sent off with 10 minutes to go after being given a straight red for a foul on Ike Ugbo before Mackail-Smith’s deserved winner.
We had backed the home team based on h2h records and it proved accurate.
Crawley Town vs Newport
Our 1st Pick: 2
Crawley closed in on the League Two play-off places with an impressive win over promotion-hunting Newport County. Joe Maguire struck for the hosts inside a minute from a Lewis Young cross. Jamille Matt levelled, but Filipe Morais’ penalty restored Crawley’s lead after Ollie Palmer was brought down.
Palmer’s header and Ashley Nathaniel-George’s solo goal stretched Crawleys’ lead, before County’s Fraser Franks was shown a straight red card for a bad foul on Nathaniel-George.
Yeovil vs Tranmere
Our 1st Pick: X
Yeovil and Tranmere played out a goalless draw as neither side did enough to secure all three points in their League Two clash at Huish Park. Yeovil arguably had the better of the few opportunities in the game as a flicked header from Alex Fisher in the first half was tipped over by Scott Davies.
After the break, the Glovers went reasonably close again as a cross from Jake Gray turned into a shot and, with Davies stranded, Luke McCoulough expertly headed away from under his own bar.
Yoann Arquin perhaps should have done better with a Carl Dickinson free-kick that found him in the box but he could only put it wide, while Tom James had Davies worried with a free-kick of his own which the Tranmere goalkeeper tried to catch but could only push over the bar.
James Norwood did have a chance for the visitors deep into added time but despite having eight league goals already this season only rolled his tame effort into the hands of a thankful Nathan Baxter.
We had backed these two to settle for a point each based on current form and it proved an accurate prediction.
Ipswich vs QPR
Our 1st Pick: X
Queens Park Rangers eased to victory at Championship strugglers Ipswich Town to increase the pressure on Tractor Boys manager Paul Hurst. The visitors went ahead when Town keeper Dean Gerken fumbled Luke Freeman’s corner into his own net.
Rangers doubled their lead on the stroke of half-time through Tomer Hemed’s penalty after Eberechi Eze was felled in the box by Toto Nsiala. Gerken denied Eze and Hemed after the break, while England Under-20 forward Eze also clipped the bar with a shot from the edge of the box as Rangers dominated.
Ipswich have won just once in the league this season under Hurst and are yet to register a home victory since the former Shrewsbury boss took charge at Portman Road this summer. The Suffolk side rarely threatened Joe Lumley in the QPR goal, with a Grant Ward header their only effort on target.
It proved to be a comfortable afternoon for the west Londoners once they took the lead from Freeman’s set-piece, as Steve McClaren’s side made it three games without defeat. Ipswich remain one point from safety despite the loss but drop to the bottom of the table, slipping behind Hull City on games won.
Plymouth vs Burton
Our 1st Pick: X
Burton defender Kyle McFadzean scored twice as Nigel Clough’s side claimed their first League One away win of the season at basement side Plymouth. Unmarked McFadzean headed home Stephen Quinn’s 84th-minute free-kick at the near post to put the Brewers ahead for the first time in an enthralling game. Argyle striker Freddie Ladapo scored twice in the first half, opening the scoring with a superb shot from just inside the box that beat the diving Dimitar Evtimov after nine minutes.
McFadzean levelled in the 19th minute, heading home from a corner after Ben Turner nodded back across goal from the far post. Ladapo pounced on a Quinn backpass to round Evtimov and score his second after 35 minutes.
But just moments later Albion again restored parity from a corner, Lucas Akins heading home Jamie Allen’s 39th-minute delivery. Ladapo – who should have had a hat-trick – played his part in defence, clearing McFadzean’s goal-bound header off the line following another corner but the defender would not be denied six minutes from time.
Derby vs Sheffield Utd
Our 1st Pick: 1
A goal after 19 seconds helped Derby County deny Sheffield United the chance to go top of the Championship, as the Blades’ four-match winning run ended with defeat at Pride Park.
Rams striker Jack Marriott’s clever, flicked finish won the game for Frank Lampard’s hosts with 13 minutes to play. Derby had led inside the first minute when Craig Bryson completed a good team move, but Chris Basham tucked United level before half-time.
The hosts pressed for a winner, before Marriott’s second goal in two starts sent them up to fifth. The win was Derby’s first since their Carabao Cup victory on penalties at Manchester United in September and their sixth of the league season, moving them four points behind the second-placed Blades.
The visitors would have gone top with a draw, after defeats for promotion-chasing Leeds United and West Bromwich Albion earlier on Saturday. Chris Wilder’s men played some well-worked football in the first half, culminating with Basham’s equaliser, after John Fleck had beaten four Derby players before squaring the ball to the centre-half at the far post.
But Martyn Waghorn should have headed Derby back in front moments later and then they had the better of the second half, before Marriott darted in at the near post and diverted home to end United’s five-match unbeaten streak.
Strasbourg vs Monaco
Our 1st Pick: 1
Thierry Henry’s first game as a manager ended in defeat as his Monaco side were beaten 2-1 at Strasbourg in Ligue 1. Frenchman Henry, 41, saw his side go behind when goalkeeper Seydou Sy fumbled an Adrien Thomasson header.
It got worse for the visitors when Samuel Grandsir saw red for a high foot, before Strasbourg substitute Lebo Mothiba made it two for the home side. Youri Tielemans’ late penalty was only a consolation, with Monaco above bottom club Guingamp on goal difference.
Their six-point tally from 10 games this season is also the club’s worst start since the 1953-54 season. The result sees Strasbourg rise to sixth in the table, with the principality side left to focus on Wednesday’s Champions League group match at Club Brugge. Former France and Arsenal star Henry, who began his playing career at Monaco and helped them win Ligue 1 in 1997, was assistant manager of Belgium before joining the eight-time French champions.
We had backed Monaco to continue on their downward spiral despite their new coach and it proved to be accurate.
Rayo Vallecano vs Getafe
Our 1st Pick: 2
What started out as a rather timid 1st half ended up as a thrilling clash in the 2nd between these two Spanish sides in the La Liga. This one had it all as it had both a sending off as well as an own goal that ended up as the match winner.
The game came to life in and around the 63rd minute when the visitors broke the deadlock courtesy of a Dimitri Foulquier goal that sent the away fans into ecstasy. Their joy was doubled when Sergio Akieme found the back of the net albeit on the wrong end to put the visitors two goals up with 20 minutes to go.
The hosts did pull one back via Raul De Tomas but it was a case of a little too late and their evening got even worse as Oscar Trejo was given his matching orders during extra time. The visitors then held on to a vital win in their quest for survival in the Spanish La Liga.
Inter vs AC Milan
Our 1st Pick: X
Inter Milan Captain, Mauro Icardi, scored a dramatic injury-time winner as they beat city rivals AC Milan at the San Siro in Serie A.
The 222nd Milan derby was petering out before the Argentine striker headed in Matias Vecino’s cross. Inter – who lost Radja Nainggolan to a first-half injury – were deserved winners, but it was a lacklustre game.
The closest either side came before the winner was Inter’s Stefan de Vrij hitting the post from close range. Icardi – who only touched the ball 15 times in the entire game – and AC Milan’s Mateo Musacchio both had goals correctly disallowed for offside. Inter move up to third with the victory – with AC Milan remaining 12th.
hat’s it for another pulsating week of our sportpesa megajackpot post-match breakdown. There were some surprising results but with each failure one can only hope to learn. Here’s a tip for all our sports betting enthusiasts, sometimes stats may favor a particular team but dig deeper and trust by your gut. Sometime your winning slip could be hinged on you backing the underdog and going against the norm. As they say, fortune favors the bold. Be on the lookout for our Sportpesa Megajackpot Predictions this week.
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