Week 36 post MJP analysis

Welcome to yet another Sportpesa Megajackpot Post-Match Analysis. We managed to get 9/17 correct predictions which were poor by our standards. There were close calls and red cards that threw some of the games off. We may have had a below par performance in the last week but this has only spurred as to dig even deeper to ensure that we bounce back in a huge way in this week’s Sportpesa Megajackpot. With that in mind, below is the breakdown of the results as well as an in depth look of our research methodology in the hopes that with each loss we all gain more insight needed for us to improve in This Weeks’ Sportpesa Megajackpot.


Gillingham v Wimbledon

Our 1st Pick: 1

Result: 0-1

Joe Pigott’s fifth goal of the season was enough to earn AFC Wimbledon a 1-0 win over Gillingham, their first league victory since the opening game of the campaign.

It brought Wimbledon the three points they had deserved on the balance of play and was the only significant chance in a game that lacked quality or excitement.

James Hanson struck the bar from range in the first half, but neither keeper made a single save of note until Tom King turned away a 95th-minute free-kick from Luke O’Neill – the only time the home side had threatened to score.

We backed the home team to come out on top of this one based on h2h records but it proved inaccurate as the visitors’ top scorer was just too hot to handle on the day.


Accrington v Burton

Our 1st Pick: X

Result: 1-1

Billy Kee scored from the penalty spot to rescue a point for Accrington in their 1-1 draw with Burton.

The Brewers had taken an 11th minute lead through summer signing Scott Fraser.

Nigel Clough’s men looked on course for their first away win of the season as Accrington struggled to find a way back into the game for long periods.

Accrington had got off to the better start, with chances falling to the fit-again Kee, Sam Finley, Sean McConville and defender Mark Hughes.

However, after dominating the opening exchanges, midfielder Fraser killed their momentum with his first goal for Burton since signing from Dundee United, finishing well after Marvin Sordell’s initial shot was well saved.

But Accrington kept going and after substitute Offrande Zanzala was tripped in the box, Kee fired in the equaliser from 12 yards.

Based on current form, we backed a draw as our pick and it proved to be an accurate prediction.


Doncaster v Luton Town

Our 1st Pick: 1

Result: 2-1

Goals from Matty Blair and Ben Whiteman helped Doncaster to a first win in seven matches as they overcame Luton.

Much of the pressure came from visitors Luton, who equalised once through Elliot Lee but could not find another.

Blair opened the scoring for Doncaster with a superb individual effort just six minutes in. Starting from halfway, he surged forward before slamming a superb shot into the far corner from the edge of the box.

Luton responded well and piled on the pressure with Lee, James Collins and Jorge Grant all going close to drawing them level.

But the visitors did manage a deserved equaliser in first-half stoppage time when Lee headed in from close range from a Dan Potts knock-back.

Doncaster halted the Luton momentum just 35 seconds into the second half. A shot from Blair was blocked out only as far as Whiteman, whose low strike from 20 yards found the corner via a deflection.

Luton again had the more threatening play with chances for Potts and Pelly Ruddock but they could not break Doncaster’s resolve.

We backed the home side for a win based on current form as well as home ground advantage and it proved accurate.


Cambridge v Carlisle

Our 1st Pick: 2

Result: 1-2

Carlisle came from behind to inflict more home misery on Cambridge in a hard-fought victory in League Two.

The hosts had by far the better of the first half and went ahead through Jevani Brown, who started and completed a move which ended with Jabo Ibehre pulling the ball back for the forward to place into the bottom corner.

That came moments after Brown had created a great opportunity for Ade Azeez, but his effort was somehow kept out at point-blank range by Adam Collin.

Carlisle had offered little but found themselves level two minutes before half-time when Richie Bennett nodded home from close range following Jamie Devitt’s cross from the right.

The turnaround was completed when Devitt’s pass found Ashley Nadesan, who turned sharply before firing past David Forde and into the far corner.

Cambridge came close to equalizing through substitute Barry Corr, who saw his effort from George Maris’ corner cleared off the line, but Joe Dunne’s side fell to their fourth successive home defeat in all competitions.

An away win was our pick based on current form as well as h2h records and the second half winner verified our prediction as correct.


Southend v Peterborough

Our 1st Pick: X

Result: 2-3

Ivan Toney’s late goal earned unbeaten League One leaders Peterborough United a thrilling win at Southend United.

Matt Godden fired in the opener for Posh, who have made the best start to a season in the club’s history under Steve Evans.

Godden stabbed in again after the hosts failed to clear Marcus Maddison’s free-kick, but Tom Hopper gave Southend hope when he tapped in from Harry Bunn’s pass.

Stephen McLaughlin’s strike drew Southend level, before Toney slotted in to earn his side all three points.

We had gone for a draw as our pick based on current form and it proved true until the dying minutes when the visitors got their winner.


Tranmere v Colchester

Our 1st Pick: X

Result: 1-1

James Norwood scored his seventh goal in as many matches but it was only enough for a point as Tranmere were held to a draw by Colchester at Prenton Park.

Norwood drilled home three minutes before the break to give Rovers a half-time lead but a mistake by goalkeeper Scott Davies allowed the U’s to draw level through Harry Pell.

Norwood thought he had scored early on when he headed home a Zoumana Bakayogo cross, but he was flagged offside.

A sloppy back-pass from Steve McNulty put Luke Norris in on goal for Colchester but Davies rushed out to deny him before Sammie Szmodics put the rebound wide.

Just before the break, Tranmere’s greater endeavor paid off when Norwood collected the ball on the edge of the box and produced a clinical finish into the bottom corner.

But Colchester eventually equalized when Brennan Dickenson’s corner was punched down by Davies into the path of Pell who was able to steer the ball home.

A draw was our pick based on h2h records and it proved to be an accurate prediction by the final whistle.


Halifax v Leyton Orient

Our 1st Pick: 2

Result: 0-1

Leyton Orient scored a dramatic stoppage-time equaliser at Halifax to maintain their unbeaten start to the National League season.

Halifax forward Matty Kosylo tested visiting goalkeeper Dean Brill early on before Orient grew into the match with Marvin Ekpiteta seeing his strike saved by Sam Johnson.

Macauley Bonne spurned several good openings in the first half, and he almost created the opening goal 10 minutes after the restart when his cross found Josh Koroma, whose effort came off the far post.

The Shaymen capitalised on the away side’s profligacy when Kosylo was felled inside the area and Dayle Southwell slotted home the spot-kick to edge the hosts in front.

But James Alabi finished from close range in the first minute of added time to earn the visitors a valuable point.

We had gone for an away win based on current form but it proved inaccurate as the hosts pulled a ‘game of their’ season type of performance and were unlucky not to walk away with maximum points.

Oldham v Newport

Our 1st Pick: X

Result: 0-1

Newport County won their second away game on the bounce as Tyreeq Bakinson’s goal was enough to see off Oldham.

Bakinson, who is on loan with the Exiles from Bristol City, scored his first goal for County on 69 minutes after being teed up by Matty Dolan.

Newport keeper Joe Day made a string of late saves to keep his side ahead as Oldham tried to find an equaliser.

The Exiles stay second, behind leaders Lincoln on goal difference, while Oldham drop down to 10th.

We had gone for a draw based on previous h2h records between the two teams but the solitary goal by Bakinson as well as profligacy in front of goal nullified our prediction.


Scunthorpe v Rochdale

Our 1st Pick: 2

Result: 3-3

In what was yet another serious contender for match of the weekend, Rochdale produced a stunning second-half fightback to claim a draw at Scunthorpe and deny new Iron manager Stuart McCall a win in his first league match in charge at Glanford Park.

Goals from Lee Novak, with just two minutes gone, and a mazy run and finish from Ryan Colclough put the Iron on course for victory with only a quarter of the contest played.

But Dale, who found the trickery of Colclough and on-loan Chelsea striker Ike Ugbo difficult to contain early on, were a much better side after the break and as the heavens opened, the goals rained in.

Oliver Rathbone pulled one back not long after the restart – reacting quickest after Jak Alnwick had kept out a powerful low drive from Sam Hart – and though Scunthorpe restored their two-goal cushion within 60 seconds via Charlie Goode’s header, Dale came roaring back.

Rathbone rattled in his own and his side’s second of the afternoon from outside the box before substitute Matty Gillam saw his late effort deflect into the top corner to deservedly secure a share of the spoils.

And, in a pulsating contest, Dale’s afternoon could have been even better had Aaron Wilbraham not fired over the bar when the ball ran through to him in stoppage time.

We had gone for an away win based on h2h records and it almost proved true were it not for some wastefulness in front of goal.


Eastleigh v Flyde

Our 1st Pick: 2

Result: 0-0

Eastleigh ended a run of three successive defeats by holding high-flying AFC Fylde to a goalless draw.

The point extended Fylde’s unbeaten away record this season and they had the better of the few chances that were created in the first half.

Fylde forced Eastleigh keeper Graham Stack to make a smart save when Danny Philliskirk teed up Jim Kellerman on the edge of the area, while two Joe Cardle crosses just evaded Danny Rowe and Ashley Hemmings.

The hosts had perhaps the best chance after the break as Paul McCallam’s header across goal found Cavanagh Miley, but the unmarked midfielder fired well over from 15 yards.

Stack denied Fylde again three minutes later, making a smart save as Rowe fired an effort on goal from 25 yards. There were few clear-cut chances created in the rest of the half as the points were shared.

We had gone for an away win based on their current form but it wasn’t to be as the hosts stood tall.


Solihull Moors v Hartlepool

Our 1st Pick: X

Result: 0-1

Liam Noble scored his fifth goal of the season as Hartlepool extended their unbeaten run to seven matches with victory at 10-man Solihull.

The home side endured a miserable opening 20 minutes, losing striker Adi Yussuf to injury and skipper Kyle Storer to a red card for a strong challenge on fellow midfielder Nicky Featherstone.

Hartlepool grew into the game as the half progressed, with Noble firing over and striker Niko Muir seeing a shot on the turn saved by the goalkeeper.

A lively start to the second half saw Muir sent clear only to fire at Ryan Boot, Pools keeper Scott Loach deny Danny Wright, and Boot keep out a Luke James strike with Mark Kitching sending the follow-up into the side-netting.

Muir spurned another clear-cut opening, but Hartlepool did break the deadlock when Noble curled home from 25 yards. Jamey Osbourne shot wide from the edge of the box for Solihull before Ryan Donaldson’s drive came back off the crossbar for the visitors in what was a thrilling encounter.

We had gone for a stalemate as our top pick based on current form but the early red card threw our prediction off.


Degerfors v Eskilstuna

Our 1st Pick: X

Result: 2-2

This was arguably the game of the weekend as both teams fought tooth and nail in order to walk away with maximum points but at the end of the day, the spoils were shared.

It all started off when Bajram Ajeti successfully converted a 29th minute penalty to pull the visitors ahead. They held on and went into the break with the lead but the hosts came out firing in the second half. Their constant pressure was duly rewarded when Wright scored the equalizer in and around the 51st minute.

Marcus De Bruin then sent the home fans into delirium when he found the back of the net just 9 minutes later. The hosts seemed to be heading for certain victory but there was one last twist in this thrilling match. Adnan Kojic broke several hearts when he equalized for the visitors with just a minute left on the clock to ensure the spoils were shared at the end.

We had gone for a draw as our pick based on current form, trends and h2h records and it proved to be an accurate prediction.



Finland v Hungary

Our 1st Pick: 1

Result: 1-0

A 7th minute Teemu Pukki left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner was all that separated this teams as they battled in the newly launched UEFA Nations League.

The match kicked off to a blistering start with the hosts racing off the blocks. Their fine start was duly rewarded as early as the 7th minute when they found the back of the net. An early goal usually means that we would be in for a high scoring match but both defenses stood tall and the match was eventually decided by that solitary goal.

We had gone for a home win based on h2h records as well as home ground advantage and it proved to be an accurate prediction.


England v Spain

Our 1st Pick: 2

Result: 1-2

England’s Nations League campaign opened with defeat as they were beaten by Spain in their first match since the World Cup.

Marcus Rashford gave England the perfect start with an 11th-minute strike from Luke Shaw’s pass but Spain responded with an almost instant equaliser thanks to Saul Niguez’s low finish.

Rodrigo Moreno then took advantage of poor marking at a free-kick to score the winner from close range after 32 minutes.

England suffered a blow just after half-time when Shaw was taken off on a stretcher with a head injury following an accidental collision with Dani Carvajal but they rallied late on and could have earned a draw.

David de Gea, who saved brilliantly from Rashford’s header in the first half, denied his Manchester United colleague once more and England were furious Dutch referee Danny Makkelie ruled out an injury-time finish from substitute Danny Welbeck after Spain’s keeper tumbled under pressure from the striker.

England were left to ponder their first competitive defeat at Wembley since they lost a Euro 2008 qualifier to Croatia in November 2007, a run stretching back 24 games – and also Gareth Southgate’s first home defeat as manager.

We had gone for an away win based on current form as well as Spain’s new manager in form of Luis Enrique and it proved to be accurate.


Luxemborg v Moldova

Our 1st Pick: 1

Result: 4-0

Luxemborg made little work of their lowly rated UEFA Nation’s league opponents and ran riot as they scored 4 past the toothless Moldovans.

Malget opened the scoring in and around the 34th minute for the hosts and it was all one-way traffic from then on. Thill, Sinani and Pereira scored the other goals in the second half to ensure a memorable victory for the hosts in their quest to climb up the rankings and stand a chance at making it to the Euro finals.

We had gone for a home win based on current form and it proved an accurate prediction.


Oxford Utd v Coventry

Our 1st Pick: 1

Result: 1-2

Goals from Jordan Shipley and Conor Chaplin saw Coventry City claim only their second league win of the season as they saw off struggling Oxford.

Jordan Shipley put City ahead with a shot from inside the box that deflected off U’s defender John Mousinho.

Conor Chaplin then doubled the lead from the penalty spot with eight minutes to go after Shipley was brought down by U’s keeper Jonathan Mitchell.

Jonathan Obika made it 2-1 late on when he headed in Luke Garbutt’s corner. Oxford boss Karl Robinson was forced to watch from the stands, as he served the second of a two-game touchline ban.

Coventry are now 12th in League One, four points off the top six, while the U’s are second bottom having only won once this season.

We had gone for home win based on previous head to head records but it proved inaccurate as the visitors pulled ahead in the dying minutes.


Orgryte v Osters

Our 1st Pick: 1

Result: 1-0

A 78th minute Daniel Paulson goal was all that separated these two sides with what was a rather cagey encounter. Chances were far and in between as neither team seemed to have it in them to go for the maximum points.

Most of the play was boggled in the middle of the park as neither defence was really put to the test. However, the hosts sparked to life in the dying minutes and were duly rewarded when Daniel found the back of the net.

We had gone for a home win based on h2h records and it proved accurate.

That’s it for another pulsating week of our sportpesa megajackpot post-match breakdown. There were some surprising results but with each failure one can only hope to learn. Here’s a tip for all our sports betting enthusiasts, sometimes stats may favor a particular team but dig deeper and trust by your gut. Sometime your winning slip could be hinged on you backing the underdog and going against the norm. If in doubt, back the home team if their home ground atmosphere is known as a hostile environment for visiting teams. As they say, fortune favors the bold. Be on the lookout for our Sportpesa Megajackpot Predictions this week.

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