Sportpesa mega Jackpot post match analysis:week 29



Welcome to yet another Sportpesa Megajackpot Post-Match Analysis. Let us kick off by apologizing to all our clients as we ended up with an all-time low of 8/17 score. There were close calls, stunning comebacks and red cards that threw some of the games off not to mention simply shocking results. With that in mind, below is the breakdown of the results as well as an in depth look of our research methodology in the hopes that with each loss we all gain a lesson that could potentially set us on our way back to the Sportpesa Megajackpot Bonus promise land once again in the coming week.


Pribram V Teplice

Our 1st Pick: 1

Result: 1-1

We kick things of at the Energon Arena where Pribram were set to host their season match opener against Teplice in the Czech Liga 2018/2019. We had gone for a home win on this one but the shared spoils meant our prediction was inaccurate.

We had backed the home side based on the fact that having played 30 matches finished last season, they finished in position 2 with 58 points compared to their opponents who only managed to finish in position 9 with just 34 points in the previous season. We also factored in their respective preseason friendlies in which Pribram had the edge as they faced superior opponents such as Werder Bremen and managed to hold the German giants to a respectable draw. The away side had the edge in terms if head to head records but home advantage is what tipped the scale and we went for a home win.

It was all going to plan as Roman Kvet drew first blood for the hosts in the 16th minute. The home crowd was fully behind them as they pressed for the much needed 2nd goal that would give them some breathing space. They proved wasteful when presented with goal-scoring opportunities and they were duly punished when the visitors nicked their equalizer right after the start of the 2nd half via Patrik Zitny. Both teams could have won it but some exemplary goalkeeping by the away side and last ditch tackles ensured that the spoils were shared.


FC Zlin V Mlada Boleslav

Our 1st Pick: 2

Result: 3-2

We had backed the away side to win this one despite the fact that the struggle for the 1st league win was on FC Zlin’s agenda as they hosted Mlada at the Stadion Letná in the Czech Liga. We based our decision on the fact that despite both teams not losing in their respective preseason friendlies, Mlada had the better stats when it came to head to head records.

Both teams had met 24 times prior to this Czech Republic Liga season opener resulting in 4 draws, 9 FC Zlin wins and 11 wins by Mlada. The visitors came into this clash unbeaten in their most recent five matches. However, most of those matches were pre -season build ups.

Our prediction seemed to have been heading in the right direction as the visitors raced into a 2 goal lead. Marek scored the opener as early as the 7th minute for the visitors and Nikolay Komlichenko seemed to have secured the 3 vital points when he scored the 2nd in the 64th minute.

However, as has been the trend in last week’s Sportpesa Megajackpot, a stunning comeback was in the works. The hosts pulled a goal back via Zoran Gajic with 20 minutes left on the clock and the match really came to life. Robert Matejov scored the equalizer with just 10 minutes to go sending the home fans into pandemonium. There was still a final twist in this thrilling match as Jean-David proved to be the home side hero as he scored the winner in the 2nd minute of additional time to ensure that the home side kicked off their season with maximum points.

The result meant that our prediction was nullified as we had backed the away side and up until the 70th minute we had it in the bag as they were 2 nil up but the stunning comeback was one we just couldn’t predict. The lesson we have picked from the 1st two matches was that in this season opening matches, historical data doesn’t really carry weight as the underdogs had so far punched well above their weight.


FC Hermanstadt V Sepsi OSK

Our 1st Pick: 1

Result: 1-0

This was our 1st accurate prediction as we had gone for a home win as FC Hermanstadt and Sepsi OSK clashed for three important points at the Városi Stadion in yet another first match of a season but this time in the Romania Liga 1.

As these two sides had never met before, we couldn’t rely on head to head records and thus based our pick on current form as well as overall performance in the previous season.

The hosts had finished at position 2 with 91 points in this ROMANIA Liga II 2017/2018 with just a single loss to their name. Sepsi on the other hand finished in position 12 with 19 points in the ROMANIA Liga 1 2017/2018 with a staggering 15 losses. Despite the fact that this was a 1st match in the main league after gaining promotion. We backed them for a win as the visitors were on a run of 5 losses in their last 5 matches including preseason friendlies. We thus backed the underdog as they had won their last 2 preseason friendly matches, drawn twice and lost just once and it proved to be the right call.

The solitary goal in the match came in and around the 11 minute courtesy of Stefan Miluta who proved to be the home town hero in their 1st match in the Romania League 1 after their promotion.


Botev Plovdiv V Levski Sofia

Our 1st Pick: 2

Result: 0-1

We backed the away side to win this one and were once again proved right by the final whistle. Botev Plovdiv hosted Levski Sofia at Stadion Letná in yet another season opener, this time in the Bulgaria First League.

We based our pick on the final league positions in the previous season as this was a season opener. Botev had finished in position 5 with a tally of 42 points while the visitors ended the season in 3rd position with a tally of 50 points. Previous head to head records also favored the away side and aided in our final pick. Both teams had met 20 times in which they drew 3 times, Botev Plovdiv had 6 wins and won in 11 of those matches.

However, matches aren’t won on paper and it proved to be a really even encounter and either team created enough chances to win it. The match winning goal came at the very end of the match in the literal sense as Iliya Dimitrov nicked the winner in the 3rd minute of added time to ensure the hosts ran away with maximum points in the season opener.


Mezokovesdi SE V Paksi FC

Our 1st Pick: 1

Result: 3-1

Mezokovesdi and Paksi SE clashed for three important points at Városi Stadion In the Hungary NB 1. In what was another season opening match, we once again backed the home team to get the maximum points and it proved an accurate prediction by the final whistle.

As both teams had met 8 times resulting in 2 draws, 3 wins for the hosts and 3 wins as well for the visitors, there wasn’t really much to separate the two in terms of head to head records. The visitors had the edge in terms of final league standings last season as they finished in 7th position with 42 points as compared to their opponents who finished in 9th position with 37 points. However, the inseparable head to head records meant we made our call based purely on gut feeling which at the time led as to backing the home side and it proved to be the right call.

Goals by Stefan Drazic, Attila Szalai and an own goal by David Kulcsar gave the hosts a comfortable margin and ensured maximum points. The visitors’ consolation goal was scored by David Kulcsar who ended up scoring on both ends, a rare but unenviable fete.


Philadelphia Union v LA Galaxy

Our 1st Pick: 2

Result: 1-3

We had backed the away side to win as Philly Union hosted Los Angeles Galaxy at the Talen Energy Stadium looking to continue with their good positive run.

The basis of our decision was rather unorthodox as with both teams in fine form coming into this, our decision was hinged on the Zlatan Ibrahimovic factor after his recent transfer to LA Galaxy and he proved to be the game changer as we had expected.

Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Michael Ciani and Ola Kamara each scored one goal to lift the LA Galaxy past the Philadelphia Union, 3-1, on what was a rainy and windy Saturday night. Sapong had given the hosts a 1-0 lead in the 29th minute when he redirected a shot in front for his third goal of the season. They went into the locker room with a 1-0 lead and had been 6-0-0 this season when winning at half-time.

However the visitors rallied and the Zlatan effect proved to be vital in turning the match on its tide. In the 48th minute, the visitors tied the game at 1 all when Kamara broke free and chipped a shot over Blake. Ibrahimovic had sent a beautiful pass through three Union players to a streaking Kamara, who notched his eighth goal of the season.

The Swedish talisman then turned from provider to scorer when he dribbled to the left of the box in the 63rd minute and sent a strike into the net for a 2-1 Galaxy lead. It was his 12th goal in 15 games since joining the Galaxy. The match was then put to bed when Ciani scored in the 82nd minute by finishing a corner kick with a header to give the visitors a two-goal cushion thereby effectively guaranteeing maximum points.


CF Pachuca V CF Monterrey

Our 1st Pick: X

Result: 0-1

CF Monterrey-the defending champions kicked off their league defense with a visit to Estadio Hidalgo to play against Pachuca in what proved to be a hotly contested match. We had backed a draw as the final result in this particular one but it proved inaccurate by the end of the 90 as the away side walked away with maximum points.

We based our decision on previous head to head stats and current form as this was yet another season opening match but this time in the Mexico Clausura Liga MX. The two sides had met 45 times in the past, Pachuca having won 14 times, CF Monterrey 17 times and drawn 14 times. This showed that despite being the underdog on paper, the hosts were capable of causing an upset on more than one occasion against this particular opponent.

However, a solitary goal by Aviles Hurtado in and around the 64th minute proved to be the match winner despite the hosts having more of the ball and more shots. In retrospect, maybe backing the underdogs against the defending league champions because it was the first match of the new season was a stretch but it was a really tight match.


Celaya V Dorados

Our 1st Pick: X

Result: 1-1

We had backed a draw in this one as Celaya and Dorados clashed in the first match Ascenso MX 2018-2019 at Estadio Miguel Alemán Valdés and it proved to be an accurate prediction.

We based our decision on current form in which the visitors had an edge over their rivals having won 3 of their last 5 matches in their preseason friendlies compared to the hosts who had only managed 1 win in their last 5. This meant most tipsters would have gone for an away win which would have been backed by the head to head records which gave the away side an edge as well. The two sides had met 15 times in the past, Celaya FC having won 4 times, Dorados FC 7 times and 4 matches ending in a stalemate. However, we went for a draw based on the fact that the hosts were defending champions and we felt that despite their lacklustre form, they would settle for a point in what was not only the fast match of the season but their 1st home match as well and it proved true.

Goals from Kevin Favela and a Christian Baez penalty ensured that the spoils were shared in what was a feisty encounter in which the home side had to see out the last 20 minutes a man less after Rodrigo Lopez was given his matching orders. The visitors piled on the pressure and tried to make the extra man count but the hosts defended resolutely and ensured they earned a point.


Juarez FC V Alebrijes Oaxaca

Our 1st Pick: 1

Result: 1-0

Juarez FC were seeking a win as they welcomed Alebrijes Oaxaca on what was yet another season opening match in the Mexico  Ascenso MX. We had backed the home side to bag all three points based on vital historical data as well as home ground advantage as we didn’t have any current data to help in finding a favorite.

It was pretty even in terms of head to head records as they had met a total of 9 times in the past, Juarez having won 3 times, Alebrijes 3 times and 3 matches ending as draws. However, Juarez had managed to keep 2 clean sheets in the last 3 matches over their rivals at home hence our decision to back them and it proved accurate.

It seemed like the match was headed for a draw but Lucas Da Silva had other ideas as he scored 7 minutes into added time sending the home crowd into frenzy.





AC Horsens V Randers FC

Our 1st Pick: 1

Result: 1-1

We had gone for a home team win when AC Horsens hosted Randers FC at the CASA Arena in the 2018-19 Denmark Superliga.  Notably, this was only the match in the new season thereby most stats couldn’t be really relied heavily on and our prediction proved inaccurate by the end of regulation time.

We based our pick on current form and after opening their season with a win against Copenhagen, the hosts were in fine form compared to the visitors who had lost in their season opener. We thus believed that the win meant they came into this one with momentum but as a pundit once said, football matches aren’t won on paper.

The visitors drew 1st blood when Benjamin Stokke scored in the 36th minute and were it not for a penalty awarded to the home side with just 4 minutes to go which was converted by Mathias; this one was headed for an even worse upset in relation to our prediction.


AGF Aarhus V FC Nordsjalland

Our 1st Pick: 2

Result: 1-1

This is yet another match in which our pick proved untrue by the end of 90 minutes of nerve-wrecking football. FC Nordsjalland traveled to Ceres Park for the second week match of the all-new 2018-19 Denmark Superliga.

We based on our decision to back the away side for a win on head to head stats which had them at a slight advantage. The two sides had met 35 times in the past, AGF Aarhus having won 10 times, FC Nordsjalland 18 times and drawn 7 times. Kasper Hjulmand had been doing a phenomenal job since he took charge of FC Nordsjalland in 2016. He had an unbeaten record stretching back to early May and we felt that this would go a long way in helping them secure a win in this game.

The visitors did draw 1st blood when Skov Olsen scored after just 4 minutes but they failed to make their early momentum count and hosts slowly clawed themselves back into the match. Their point earning goal came in the 71st minute courtesy of Jakob Ankersen.


Fjolnir V Vestmannaeyjar

Our 1st Pick: X

Result: 1-1

We expected a rowdy crowd at the Extra Völlurinn when Fjolnir played against Vestmannaeyjar with a draw our top pick and this proved to be an accurate prediction.

We based our pick purely on current form which portrayed that both team were really struggling at the bottom end of Iceland League or Urvalsdeild. Both teams had won just once in the last 5 matches and we felt that they’d both be willing to settle for a point if only just to end the rut and it proved to be an accurate assessment.

A goal by Bimir Ingasson for the hosts and the equalizer by Gunnar Heldar was all the goal mouth action in this encounter and the result reflected the general style of play as both sides were more afraid of losing than actually winning.


Waterford UTD V Shamrock Rovers

Our 1st Pick: 1

Result: 0-1

Waterford UTD and Shamrock Rovers fought valiantly for the three points at Waterford Regional Sports Centre over the weekend in the Republic of Ireland Premier Division- 2018. We had gone for a home win but it was to be as the visitors pulled one of the surprises of the weekend.

We based our decision on head to head records as well as current form. The two sides had met 25 times in the past, Waterford UTD having won 10 times, Shamrock Rovers 7 times and drawn 8 times. Notably as well, the hosts came into this one having lost just once in their last 5 matches.

Couple the above with the fact that Alan Reynolds’ men were undefeated in their last 4 matches and possessed a rock-solid form at home with 9 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in the last 12 games, and you get why we backed them for a win in this one.

Once again, we were reminded that football matches aren’t won on paper as Gary Shaw scored a 75th winner to silence the home crowd as well as send the travelling fans into a state of pure joy.


MAS Taborsko V Hradec Kralove

Our 1st Pick: 2

Result: 0-1

It’s always a thrilling encounter when Mas Taborsko welcomes Hradec Kralove in the Czech Republic FNL. This was yet another season opening match and our decision to back the away side to carry the day in this one proved accurate.

As it was the first match in the new season, we based our pick purely on the most recent head to head records which had the away side at an advantage. In their last 5 h2h, Mas Taborsko had won none, Hradec Kralove won 3 times and two matches ended in a draw. The fact that the visitors came into this one on a 3 match winning streak, albeit in preseason friendlies, also helped tip our scales in their favor.

The match was a strange one to say the least, a solitary goal by Ladislav Martan as early as the 2nd minute was all that was needed to ensure that the away side walked away with maximum points.


Sirius FC V IFK Goteborg

Our 1st Pick: 2

Result: 3-2

This was yet another strong contender for match of the weekend as it had what can be only described as a stunning comeback by the home side. Majority of the tipsters including ourselves had gone for an away win as bottom dwellers Sirius FK hosted IFK Goteborg in the 2018 Sweden Allsvenskan on match day 15.

We had based our pick on both current form as well as head to head records. The stats weighed heavily in favor of the away side and we made our pick accordingly. The two sides had met 5 times in the past, Sirius FK winning just once, Goteborg 2 times and two matches ending in draws. The fact that Sirius had an abysmal record at home with 0 wins in their last 7 matches, was enough to convince that it would be a positive advantage for Goteborg to secure a straight win.

The fact that football matches aren’t won on paper once again proved true as the home side fought valiantly and were duly rewarded with maximum points. Goals from Emil Salomonsson and Giorgi Kharaishvili in the 13th and 37th minute respectively gave the visitors a 2 goal lead and all seemed to be going according to plan, or so it seemed. However, Philip Haglund pulled a goal back for the hosts right at the stroke of half-time to hand them a lifeline.

This meant that the hosts had the momentum coming into the 2nd half and boy did they rally back. Their constant pressure paid off as they were awarded 2 penalties in the 2nd half both of which were converted by Jesper Arvidsson, the hero of the day. The match was well beyond boiling point by this point and Lukas Johnsson was sent off in and around the 82nd minute leaving the hosts to defend their slender advantage a man less. The home crowd played a huge part in the last few minutes as they cheered their team on to a much needed victory.



Wisla Plock V Lech Poznan

Our 1st Pick: X

Result: 1-2

Wisla Plock and Lech Poznan faced off at Stadion im Kazimierza Górskiego for what was yet another 1st match of the season but this time in the Poland Ekstraklasa 2018-2019. We had a draw as our 1st pick but it was literally nullified at the very last minute of the game.

Our pick was based on a stat that is often overlooked and were it for some minute heroics, we almost had it. The head to head stats favored the away team. The two sides had met a total of 17 times in the past, Wisla Plock having won 4 times, Lech Poznan 7 times and 6 matches ending in a draw. Couple this with the fact that the visitors finished 1st in the previous season compared to Wisla’s 4th place finish and one would understand why an away win would have been the 1st pick. However, the hosts would be the fresher side in this battle since their rivals had been engaging in the Europa league qualification. This simple fact is why we thought the fatigue levels would play a hand and force the match into a stalemate.

However, with the match tied at 1 all going into the final minute of regulation time, Pedro Tiba nicked a goal and ensured that the visitors walked away with maximum points.

Arsenal Kyiv V FK Lviv

Our 1st Pick: 1

Result: 0-2

We had gone for a home win as our pick when Arsenal Kyiv hosted FK Lviv at Stadion Dynamo im Valery Lobanovsky but it proved inaccurate as the high flying home side were given a rude welcome to the Ukraine Druha Liga Group A in their very 1st match.

We based our decision on the fact that the hosts had a successful experience last season and they managed to finish on top of the Ukraine Persha Liga. This would be their first time playing in the Ukraine premier league in almost 7 years after a successful promotion campaign. Couple this with home ground advantage and you can understand why we backed them given that there weren’t previous head to head matches between the two.

We had backed an upset in terms of final result given that it was the 1st match of the season between two teams that hadn’t faced each other in this decade. However, goals from Voronin and Artur ensured that any sort of upset wasn’t in the cards as the away side went away with maximum points.


As you have probably noted by now, majority of the matches in last weeks’ sportpesa megajackpot were 1st matches of a new season and some pitted teams that had never faced each other. We do not believe in excuses, just lessons. In every defeat there was a lesson, the lack of any form of usable data proved a challenge but we did learn that in this opening matches, the outcomes generally went against the trend with some remarkable comebacks as well. Going into this week’s sportpesa megajackpot, we hope to try out some of the lessons we’ve learnt and hopefully well land on the bonus zone just as we did a mere fortnight ago.

That’s it for yet another Sportpesa Megajackpot Analysis and despite our lowest ever result, we do believe that the only way from here is up.

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