As football enthusiasts we all dream of hitting the all elusive 12/17 to 16/17 on the coveted mega jackpot and clear a few hundred thousand to a few millions but how easy is it to actually actualise this dream and is it a fool’s errand to believe that it can be done?
Let’s tackle this enigma and find out if we really can out play or out maneuver the bookies aka “muhindi”
Probability:
So let’s start with the math. What are your chances of hitting a bonus or winning the whole shebang would be the first question and we have addressed that on the below table
| RESULT | PROBABILITY |
| 17/17 | 1 in 129,140,163 |
| 16/17 | 1 in 43,046,721 |
| 15/17 | 1 in 14,348,907 |
| 14/17 | 1 in 4,782,969 |
| 13/17 | 1 in 1,594,323 |
| 12/17 | 1 in 531,441 |
As you can see the odds are not in our favor as it would take 531,441 Mega jackpot slips to be sure of winning 12/17 so do we give up or is there another way?
Using Math/statistics to increase your chances:
The advantage about sports betting and especially football is that there is an abundant amount of historical data, real time injury reporting, social media following of players and so much more that can be used to tip the scales in a punter’s favor.
If you are able to leverage this data to accurately predict 5/17 games, then your chance at a bonus of 12/17 increases to 1 in 2187 from 1 in 531,441.
The Nature of the mega jackpot:
Sportpesa employee extensive resources to ensure that they pick 34 of the most closely matched teams to make up the mega jackpot. The split between each team winning and a draw is almost 33% in favor of each outcome and that is why you will never miss a few draws in the contests. However there are always those three or four games that have an almost clear outcome of which you can use to create few slips to hedge the rest of the games.This may increase your chances at a bonus for the average minimum bonus for 12/17 is above KES 2500 and sometimes goes up to KES 50,000 so if you place an average of 5 slips per weekend and you win a bonus on the 7th or 8th weekend you will mostly likely make a profit on your investment.
As multibet we leverage all these methodologies and more in an effort to chase these elusive bonuses and we have had some success on this.
Click the below link to learn more:
https://www.multibet.co.ke/mega-jackpot-prediction/