Everyone dreams of winning the Sportpesa mega jackpot but very few are willing to put in the hard work. Winning even the bonus requires deep research as getting 12 games correct is a tall order.
How then does one increase their chances of winning the jackpot or at least win the bonus?
First thing you need to conduct deep level research. Head to head comparison does not constitute as research. It’s great to gloss over two teams recent performance but digging deeper is mandatory.We have this guide by Inplayman on the various levels of research and how to go about it .
The Levels of Research
I like to split research into different levels and that can help you understand a little better too. There is low-level research, mid-level research and high-level research. If you can master the techniques from all 3 areas, you’ll have this betting nailed. But before I continue, let me just say that by Low-level research, I don’t mean that is poor research. I’ve bet on things many a time on low-level research, but I’d adjust my stakes accordingly.
If you or a tipster you follow does this it’s for one of 3 reasons. Either you don’t really care if it wins or loses, you’re short on time or you’re being lazy. Whichever one of those it is, it doesn’t really matter. When it comes to inplay betting, the most low-level research you can do is simply looking at which team is on top and placing a bet on them. Or seeing loads of shots on target and just backing goals blindly. Pre-game low-level research could be classed as simply looking at the WDWWLL next to a team for their last 6 games.
Now this is where things get a bit more time consuming, but by mid-level research I mean conciously looking into what you’re backing. What’s the home team’s form at home? How many goals have been scored in their last 3 meetings? Before you back the first half goals, how many games at home this season have had a first half goal? Before you back the corners, how many do they average? What are their recent results against teams in a similar league position to the team that they are playing today? Now some of this you can find out easily on the internet (see my research sources at the bottom) but some of it might just be in your head. For example, I know that Liverpool have averaged around 11.5 corners per game this season, that’s just in my head and if you can keep stats like that locked away in your brain, it allows for quicker decisions, which is what’s needed when you’re betting inplay.
Now let’s take it a step further. Teams are made up of 11 players right, so you need to understand those players. How have Bayern performed this season without Lewandowski? Who is playing and who is missing? How long are they out for? Has there been a managerial change recently? Are the fans planning a protest? Are there any new signings and if so how did they perform at their last club? Knowing all of this is high-level research and can really help to take your betting to the next level. Of course there are more techniques than this like watching a live stream and loads more, but learning everything you can possibly know puts you in such a solid position as a punter.
So I did a load of research like you said, and my bet lost…
Let me tell you a little story. A few years ago I found out some insider information on a Bulgarian team. There had been some real developments at the club and players hadn’t been paid, which basically resulted in some form of strike so with an away game the next day, they had no option but to send the youth team to play against a side who were flying in the league. There’s more to it, but I went big on this bet. The home side should have beaten them anyway even with a full strength lineup, but the odds were too good to turn down, so I went for it (within my staking plan). Cut a long story short, the kids went there and played out of their skins and ended up winning 0-1. Why? Probably because they had a point to prove, they wanted to be in the first team and I never factored this into my calculations. What did I do? Well after the initial anger, I dusted myself off and got straight back to researching, in the knowledge that long-term, my research pays off. It’s hard I know, but forget it. If you’re going to these levels to do research, it will pay off eventually.
Where can I do this research?
There are hundreds of great sites out there and in honesty, it depends on the level of research you want to do, but to help you out, here’s a list and a brief summary of a few websites I used, or used to use:
Twitter – why not start here? Nearly every team in the world has a Twitter page where they post lineups and team news. Make the most of it!
Team Websites – again, nearly every team in the world has a team website, and if you don’t speak their language, Google Chrome can automatically translate it for you
Soccerway – a common site which is decent form comparing form and seeing some lineups as well as most squads. Most people only use it for the form but there are also some great other stats on there if you dig around
SoccerStats – great for statistical analysis such as goals scorer / concededed, when they are scored, scorelines and general statty stuff.
TransferMarkt – great for the player side of things. Who plays for who, when did they sign, what’s their value, how many goals have they scored. Covers all the major leagues and is a great little addition
Futbol24 – I mainly use this app to notify me when a goal is scored but their website also has some pretty decent stats on it too when you want to compare form and H2H
FootballData – only use this if you know what you’re doing around an Excel sheet. From the major leagues you can export a CSV which contains basically a load of raw data. If you’re good with your pivot tables and formulas you can do a lot with these sheets
Blogabet – worth a little look on here if you haven’t before. Basically loads of people just posting random tips on a forum, but every now and again you get a right gem of info to use to your advantage
League / Association websites – great to find previews and things like that on games
NewsNow – you might have heard of this site before, but it basically goes and scours news sites from all over the world. So this can be BBC Gloucester or some local newspaper website that might have a little preview of the game you’re looking for. Very clever addition to your arsenal this is.
SimpleSoccerStats – great little site for some simple consoles on stats of teams in the major leagues. Also features a very decent corners console